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joanne g murphy's avatar

900+ people in a country of over 200 million eligible voters? a drop of cat piss. Besides, in the analysis of the poll on a separate page, it was revealed that only 23% of the respondents even had a BA. So a bunch of ignorant yutzes who either still have landlines, or answer unknown numbers on their cells, are who was asked.

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Sarah's avatar

Having studied research and methodology, every time a poll comes out it reminds me that the media is only interested in getting attention, stoking fear and supporting the wealthy oligarchy of billionaires and corporations. There is Never a reliable poll on a presidential election that has a broad coverage of the diverse population, sizable number of people relative to the total population (20,000 for example), doesn’t rely on landlines or people willing to respond to emails/texts, taken from an even swath of blue and red states, etc. THESE POLLS ARE SHIT AND SHOULD BE IGNORED - PERIOD!

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un poco loco's avatar

Took a detour through Poli Sci when I was in college -- where I learned that even if the poll respondents resemble the electorate you're modeling (which is sort of preferable), the magic number you need to get credible results is 2,000 people. It's a statistical thing. (I also learned that most of Texas's founding fathers were full of shit --surprise!!! but I won't bore you with that today.)

There are a LOT of people who have no clue that you can't just stop strangers in the street at random and ask them who they're voting for and expect to get anything mildly predictive, whether you ask 5 of them or 500 -- or, especially if you're in the middle of a Trump rally, all 19.

Even Nate Silver, who has a better understanding of math and probability than most humans, fucked up big time in 2016.

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un poco loco's avatar

... or instead of stopping strangers in the street for polling, calling up strangers on landlines for your poll (as already noted.) Jesus, who even has landlines any more? (I mean, other than my 93-yo mother. Which just goes to prove the point.)

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Marian Goldsmith's avatar

Well I have a landline and I ALWAYS say no thank you and hang up when some anonymous nobody calls asking me to answer a poll. I also discard all rhe paper questionaires that come to my snail mail PO Box because the questions are unanswerable so far as I’m concerned. So that’s one female PhD who will never be represented in a poll and I’m willing to bet I’m not the only one.

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Sarah's avatar

Make that two.

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AudreyRose's avatar

I also read yesterday that a generous percentage of the poll’s respondents did not vote in 2020. A shit poll on so many counts...

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joanne g murphy's avatar

I’d like to add that nationally, 44% of the American people have a BA degree or higher. So this poll underrepresents likely Biden voters by a factor of of almost 2 (Biden polls much higher with the college educated). So if you’re going with a polling sample like this, fine, but either 1. the poll results should have been weighted to reflect that fact; or 2. At the very least, it should have been disclosed that this sampling was only about half as educated as the general population (therefore heavily favoring Trump). Altogether sloppy data compilation and inept reporting.

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D Kitterman's avatar

Especially since we already understand that the undereducated are going to vote for Trump.

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Bill Lawrence's avatar

Good point. I have an MA and a landline and a cell phone, and I never pick up when I don't recognize a caller or a number. People like me are never polled, and the kinds of folks who are glued to their cells and answer most calls are could well be a lot different in their voting habits.

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Donatella  Dillon's avatar

You sound like me: no phone answering unless I know the number😆

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Bill Lawrence's avatar

If it's legit, they'll leave a message.

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TJTarheel's avatar

I didn’t transfer my landline last time I moved but I get it all now on my cell. Thing is if you answer yes or no it wants your info to register your response so I junk it

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joanne g murphy's avatar

A similar selection error was made by the Literary Digest. In a famous polling snafu, their 1936 poll confidently predicted a blowout for Alf Landon, FDR’s Republican challenger in that year’s presidential election. When FDR of course won reelection handily, people wondered what went wrong with the polling?

The LD had conducted their poll on the telephone. Remember that in 1936 only relatively wealthy people had private phones. So the pollsters had inadvertently selected their sample to people most likely to support Landon.

This humiliating error led to the Literary Digest closing its doors shortly thereafter.

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Glenys Williams's avatar

I am so sick of the biased BS I get from the NY Times. Their daily emails are not facts. It’s an opinion and their opinions are not mine and I’m not wasting $20 a month on it. I’d rather support smaller news outlets with better journalism standards. I canceled my NY Times subscription today. Keeping my LA Times subscription.

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Linda Fulcher's avatar

Bravo. You might try the Philadelphia Inquirer - their national political columnist, Will Bunch, is terrific.

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Glenys Williams's avatar

Thank you Linda. I definitely will.

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TJTarheel's avatar

The NYT’s pollsters could get any results they want just by working with particular area and zip codes. But one thing is for sure and that’s TV news will brain wash even the best into believing Biden is too old to serve-as it’s already done to many. I was a msnbc news junkie especially Morning Joe and his guest-I didn’t miss it and recorded it when I moved to the west coast to watch but I went cold turkey when I Trump was elected and every day it was another story of him being stupid, stopped watching any of it-I had to stop getting upset every day hearing Trump sound bites, seeing his face. I only get the AP and pick news up on Tribel and Substack. Of course on Jan 06/21 I was alerted to watch the insurrection. I also watched the Election with closed fist.

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joanne g murphy's avatar

I've got a friend who supports Biden but she told me he seems "too old." They are the same age!

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Caroline's avatar

To whom it may concern, polls are not breaking news!! So stop sending me a push notifications for them!

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Kay-El's avatar

I read Jay’s article and it’s really a great explanation.

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Bill Lawrence's avatar

Everyone should read this; it's helpful in putting this poll in perspective and easing the anxiety.

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Sooz Hall's avatar

👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻

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Caroline's avatar

Thank you!

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Koko in AZ's avatar

That was very helpful. Thanks for sharing.

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Lorraine Parish's avatar

You need to cancel

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Neal Stiffelman's avatar

Laziest reporting, laziest editing... polls have no place in news journals since Truman beat Dewey.

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Carolyn O'Daly's avatar

There are no news journalists any more. It's all commentary.

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Neal Stiffelman's avatar

I believe there are local journalists who still do the digging. And Judd Legum at Popular Information does splendid, inspiring work. But television producers, ad executives, their financial bosses, layers and the higher paid execs have been strangling news reportage for years in favor of “eyeballs”, “glam” “chatter” and general bullshit. Before we watched Oppenheimer, we watched the Chet Huntley special, “The Decision to Drop the Bomb”, from 1965, available on YouTube. This is an area in which I did serious investigative work myself, and I feel qualified to say that the special program was perfect. Serious work by grownups. Oh, if the networks only could dedicate ourselves to such work, we would be so much better off, our future so much more secure.

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Carolyn O'Daly's avatar

Yes...I watch the evening news with David Muir. When I was young a half hour was all the news we got. Huntley and Brinkley, Walter Cronkite. 7 and 11 not this all day stuff they have to fill with stuff.

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Linda Fulcher's avatar

There are very few grownup reporters any longer. Too many of them are idiots who know absolutely nothing about history or politics.

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Ethereal fairy Natalie's avatar

🎯It is embarrassing.

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User's avatar
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Mar 4, 2024
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Songgirl Kim's avatar

Jeff, I think I remember you saying that you had republican friends, and that you never talked politics with them. I have a friend from high school, and we’ve never talked politics either. But the stakes are higher than ever before. I sent her Substack articles from Dan Rather, Steven Beschloss, Mark Jacob, Robert Reich, and other very talented, knowledgeable writers. I delicately, articulately encouraged her to vote blue in November. She blocked me.

I thought she was a forever friend. My point is that some of these diehard conservatives will never understand.

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Jeff Tiedrich's avatar

let me amend that.

I have friends who are never-Trump Republicans. I absolutely talk politics with them.

I have friends who are Trump voters. I do not talk politics with them. if they try to engage, I change the subject.

none of my friends are MAGA cultists. I don't think I could have a polite conversation with someone wearing a Trump hat

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KL Pierce's avatar

If they’re trump voters, isn’t that the same as a being “MAGA cultists”?

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steve robertshaw's avatar

Most Republican voters I know (been in the deep South since age 9) automatically and unthinkingly just vote for the R team. The native Southernors just simply don't like "Democrats" since the civil rights issues in the '60's , and the northern retirees I know down here (we live right off the southeast Ga/northeast Fl coast) are automatically and unthinkingly voting for the R team due to multigenerational family allegiance. For them, Trump is just the top name on the R team's ballot, and it's all about the team, always.

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KL Pierce's avatar

Additionally, I was born and raised in the south. I’m very familiar with Dixiecrats during the tenure of Jesse Helms and Strom Thurmond in NC and SC. My point being that voting republican isn’t necessarily a “multigenerational” thing.

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KL Pierce's avatar

Still the same thing.

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TJTarheel's avatar

Same here. I made the mistake of engaging with my older by ten years brother back in 2016 and we haven’t spoke since. He attacked me horribly over Trump.

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Mary Hall's avatar

My former BFF of 36 years who is a big time MAGAt ghosted me three years ago because of Trump. It's okay because I prefer my friends who aren't brain-dead, soulless, asshole fascists.

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Songgirl Kim's avatar

The first red flag should have been when she disowned her gay brother when he came out 20 years ago. I may be straight, but I don’t hate.

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Linda Fulcher's avatar

I lost a friend the same way. No great loss.

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TJTarheel's avatar

I my oldest bro and I haven’t spoken in several years now.

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Libbey Dem's avatar

I have lost several long time friends because of Cult45. Some of them were very dear friends and "educated". I just couldn't believe that they were so easily manipulated by the ramblings of a sociopath.

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Catherine's avatar

Same here.

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TJTarheel's avatar

Right. My brother earned his degree through the GI bill, a three tour Vietnam Vet I used to look up to but we split over Trump.

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Libbey Dem's avatar

It's heartbreaking. I try my damndest not to talk politics with people I care about now unless they bring it up and then I try to keep it short and sweet, if possible. My husband's sponsor isn't a trumper thumper per se but, his ideals and conspiracy theories fall in line with the MAGAts.

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Charlotte Thompson's avatar

Amazing isn't it Donna what people will fall for?

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KL Pierce's avatar

There’s no hope for MAGAs. They’re involved in a cult where facts and reason don’t matter. I gave up on them in 2015. I use my energy to fight apathy among reasonable people.

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Mark Marderosian's avatar

Exactly. When someone tells you that because you don't see proof of a conspiracy is PROOF on how well that conspiracy is WORKING and facts don't matter to them, I really don't know what there is left to say.

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Old Man's avatar

That was nice of you to try at least.

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tinfoil hattie's avatar

Don't forget Heather Cox Richardson, for God's sake.

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Donna's avatar

They polled 980 people. That’s it. Where are these people from? What age bracket are they? I’m sorry, but 980 people do not decide an election ever. My dad use to live and breath the NYT. He is rolling in his grave right now. WTF are they doing? They are failing the American People. 😡

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Rick Calegari's avatar

Failing seems to be a regular thing with the NYT. If Haley's 2-1 victory in DC is any indication that many in the GOP are fed up with Trump and his daily carnival barking demented bullshit, then it further shows how bogus these polls really are. If people ignore the polls like many do and vote with their heads about what's at stake here, we should see more favorable results and not the same old crap the NYT keeps printing.

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Mar 4, 2024
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steve robertshaw's avatar

You hit it squarely yet again! Well done.

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Ethereal fairy Natalie's avatar

And they sold out long ago, they've always been the paper of keeping the status quo. Publishing Tom Cottons op-ed about siccing the military on protestors, was the last straw for me. ( Tom, who I understand was in the military, does not know that is illegal, he is too big an idiot for words, and should never get published.

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Lisa Bonnice's avatar

A couple thoughts ...

First, no one is sending me a poll, so they ain't asking me. Who is on the receiving end of these polls?

Second, this election is like a reality show. The show runners behind the scenes are only letting the viewers see what they think will bring in the most eyeballs, even if the truth has been fictionalized.

I'm gonna sound old here, but so be it: In the 90s when reality shows first began to take over, I refused to watch them. I still refuse to watch them. Never saw TFG's show, never watched the K family, or the horrible housewives. This isn't a judgment against those who enjoy this kind of thing. It is, however, a comparison to what has taken over everyday life.

So, back to those polls ... is it possible the polls are being released to the public to rile up the viewers so they'll stay tuned to the shitshow?

It's my hope that these frightening numbers will bring Biden supporters out to vote in droves and convince TFG's rubes that they don't need to bother because Cheeto Jesus is gonna win without their help.

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Old Man's avatar

I never watched those shit shows either. And, I do have opinions about people who fill their heads with crap. And, I’m cranky.

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Charlotte Thompson's avatar

You sound like my kind of guy.

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Ethereal fairy Natalie's avatar

Yep, mine too! Myy nephew watches them all, and you can see his IQ dropping as he watches them.

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JA's avatar

I watched one season of one reality show and that was enough to sour me on reality television forever. There is no true “reality” anyway - it’s all manipulated to attract and keep viewers. The aspect that bothers me most in the dramatic music and camera angles played to hype up mundane interactions. As for Polls, they had Mondale even with Reagan. I also think that Democratic voters let their guard down when Hillary Clinton led in polls.

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Marie Drozdis's avatar

Lately, it's the ones who got the most votes who lose . I'm disheartened,, but even though the Dems aren't my party, I am still voting Blue.

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Patricia Gomes's avatar

Absolutely.

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Bad Home Cook's avatar

You make a good point. Since the Powers-that-Be have ordained that this is essentially a rematch, why would anyone bother watching or reading the news when they already know what they're getting. Nobody on the tRump train is gonna change their mind and switch sides (based on what I've seen of them, they're all legit mentally ill anyway), and Biden voters (we agree he's long in the tooth...even my 83-year-old dad thinks so, but we weren't given a choice) are gonna vote for him largely to keep the orange shitstain out of office. So the only way to keep subscribers/viewers is to manufacture outrage.

Hence the 2024 American Election Show.

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Cassandra Here's avatar

Lisa, I think you are right about ginning up the viewers/readers so they’ll keep tuning in. I’m a Neil Postman fan; turn that thing off.

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Old Man's avatar

Neil Postman, there ya go, a man before his time.

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Mark Marderosian's avatar

I hate those shows, and yet through happenstance, I've known four people who've appeared in reality shows on national TV. They told me what I already suspected: They are INCREDIBLY fake and scripted. What I didn't know is just HOW scripted they are. To the point that people are wearing ear plugs with the producers telling them what to say. One person I know got so disgusted that by the 3rd episode, they refused to play along and be the "mean girl" when it wasn't in their nature. Gee, guess who got booted off by episode's end?

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Carolyn O'Daly's avatar

You are absolutely right....it's ratings, ratings, ratings. Nothing else matters. The only thing I watch is the nightly news with David Muir. The rest is just political commentary.

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Patricia Gomes's avatar

Took my thoughts and stated them perfectly. Thank you Lisa. I AM old. Have greatgrands. I also have ONE son who is a trumpet and I have no clue how he became one. We have had two arguments about it in 2016 and have never discussed it since , but there is still a wall in our relationship. Sad. Also DEFINITELY agree with your “reality “ show reference 100% ! His rallies consist of those who have no interest in government but want to hear word salad that they can laugh at. I’ve seen MANY elections. Obviously did not agree with all of them, but this one is a fucking farce. Sorry, but no other adjective will do.

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Karen Hall's avatar

Never watched those shows either. Why subject oneself to immersion into that standard of human lives? Isn’t real life sad enough?

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Darlene Davidge's avatar

Thank you, Jeff. The NYT is making me crazy with these "polls" and the headlines about Biden's age when (and you are right again) Trumps mental acuity is declining rapidly. They should be reporting on that. And to top it off, SCOTUS has absolutely no ethics and I have lost faith.

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Cassandra Here's avatar

I don’t have a lot to say this morning. The polls are boring, and I ignore them. SCOTUS blew it by not having a record of dissent. The Constitution is clear, so if anyone on SCOTUS claims to be an originalist, they’re lying. And Clarence and Ginny are trash, absolute fucking trash.

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Charlotte Thompson's avatar

Go Cassandra.

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Victoria Wilson's avatar

It appears that the NYT is a tool of the RNC.No big surprise there just as the SCOTUS siding with TFG surprised no one.Possibly the most corrupt Court in US history needs to be reigned in , another reason Dems have to kick major ass in November.

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Don'tBlameTheDog's avatar

The only surprise is that people don't recognize the NYTs for the GOP Lite brand that they are.

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Victoria Wilson's avatar

I think people are fast finding this out.

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Marie Drozdis's avatar

Yes. When I cancelled my paying subscription Friday, In the box for Reason for Cancelling, I told them they tipped too far to the Right.

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HulitC's avatar

I often read a comment that the person has canceled their Times subscription.

The NY metropolitan area is full of well to do Reaganites. They don’t have a clue. The Times caters to their views.

My 91 year old father gets it. He still thinks the investigative reporting is good, but he does tend to believe the polls which makes him unhappy. He’ll vote Dem in November if he’s still here…

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Marlene Lerner-Bigley (CA)'s avatar

Appears? They absolutely are bought and paid for!!

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steve robertshaw's avatar

Thank you Jeff for breaking down that damn NY Times headline. You just singlehandedly boosted my serotonin AND dopamine levels (is this even possible?).

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Libbey Dem's avatar

That's called a natural high. No consequences or repercussions with that, but it can be very addictive. 😉

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Anti fascist's avatar

I’m out.

FUCK trump. Fuck SCOTUS. Fuck the NYT.

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Anti fascist's avatar

Oh and fuck Ginny Thomas. And fuck the GOP.

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Marie Martin's avatar

And an extra dose of I’M DONE for Clarence personally outside of his SC presence for being a greedy, lying, and slimy (not to mention creepy), individual.

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Anti fascist's avatar

He’s all of that. I watched the Anita Hill hearings. It made me furious that the senate still confirmed Creepy Clarence.

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Marie Martin's avatar

I remember too. I hated him. It was so obvious that he was a creep. I believe women have remarkably efficient, built-in Creep-O-Meters.

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Anti fascist's avatar

Always

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Ethereal fairy Natalie's avatar

It was in the bag for the good ol' boys club, they needed a token.

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Darrell Smith's avatar

Everything Trump touches dies. He uses people then throws them away. He got 33% to Haley's 62% in the DC primary. I hope that this trend continues in the Super Tuesday states that are not controlled by Republicans.

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Susan Niemann's avatar

The DAMNED Supreme Court. The DAMNED NYT. It's all obvious BS. I'm beyond disgusted.

Keep emailing the NYT and SCOTUS. We have to try.

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Susan Keefer's avatar

I don’t think that the NYT gives a shit what we think. If enough of us unsubscribe, maybe then they’ll get the message.

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Rhoda Ozen's avatar

Yep Susan. I canceled my subscription last week. Enough of that bs…

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Susan Keefer's avatar

👏👏👏👏

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Victoria Wilson's avatar

I am sending scathing post cards to the SCROTUS .Supreme Court of the United States 1 First St NE Washington DC 20543.(not that they give a rats ass what I think but it helps me to feel a bit better lol)

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Susan Niemann's avatar

Right! I hear ya… the whole thing is so demoralizing.

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Don'tBlameTheDog's avatar

But all the old white people who still have landlines answered the phone!

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Cassandra Here's avatar

We’re old white people with a landline. (We live in a signal shadow in the Sierra). Caller i.d. works; we don’t answer.

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Don'tBlameTheDog's avatar

Same. 😂 And may I just say here that I also have not been found in a diner that offers me iceberg lettuce, pasteurized cheese products and Wonder bread in literal decades.

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Cassandra Here's avatar

And I do not have a BarcaLounger in front of Fox on all day, hoping someone will call me and ask my opinion, because the kids stopped calling in 2015.

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Marlene Lerner-Bigley (CA)'s avatar

Hey watch it, young dude! Early 70’s here and by Gawwd I still have a landline and don’t answer bullshit calls.

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Don'tBlameTheDog's avatar

🤣🤣🤣

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AudreyRose's avatar

Right. They didn’t poll me, an old white woman with no land line.

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Marie Drozdis's avatar

I'm an Octogenarian with a landline (and a mobile) and I answer the phone.

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Don'tBlameTheDog's avatar

I'd still have my landline but the underground line went bad. They were happy to come and dig up my front yard but I passed on that! You'll have to let us all know if the NYT calls. 😜

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Burke's avatar

Recent polling indicates that 20% of Americans (50 million adult humans) believe in things that are not true.

Trump won the 2020 election.

Taylor Swift and Joe Biden fixed the Super Bowl.

John F Kennedy, Jr is coming back from the dead.

Vladimir Putin is an ok guy.

A poll that doesn't screen and ignore these 50 million idiots is irrelevant. Garbage in. Garbage out.

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TJTarheel's avatar

I think it’s the crack babies of the 80’s that are now grown up

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TJTarheel's avatar

Either that or old men fathering children with the aide of drugs when they’re past natures built in STOP mechanism

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TJTarheel's avatar

Has to be

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Tess's avatar

Agree-let them all ROT…including the NYT!

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