I think the country should go on a polls diet and not have any for at least another what, nine months just as a suggestion? Polls create anxiety. Polls are a national health issue. The last two sets of polls in major elections were so far off, it's kind of interesting they're still at it exactly the same way. The questions suck. And Trump was one of the financial contributors to one of the last polls, that one that said he was ahead of Biden. Poll diet for me.
You know, the interventions staged to help a love one get help to kick a drug/alcohol /gambling addiction, an abusive partner, Fox-not-the-News and its ilk, doomscrolling, etc.
I'm afraid we waited too long. You need to catch people closer to the beginning. They're so locked in about now, one thinks of how to cut the island so that it floats away from the mainland.
I am on a polls diet. Except that all of the Substack writers that I love are discussing them, otherwise I am ignoring them. I don't need some numbskull lazy ass journalist to tell me how I am thinking about the election, nor lying to me about how everyone else is thinking. I am not a Democrat who is down on Biden. I think he is the best president in my increasingly long (hopeful too) lifetime.
I just either skip the section a columnist is discussing a poll this far out, or skip the entire column that day. Tomorrow, he/she should have gotten it out of their system, and I can read their opinion piece again.
thanks, the only poll that counts is the election. almost 250 years of them with every one being accepted as legitimate until the orange monkey man threw his hissy fits of questioning the veracity of our system before the vote was even begun in 2016. we owe that schmuck for all of our election anxiety. lock him up in solitary with no outside communication. take away his toys and let the world see him for the jibbering idiot he is.
I grew up around Truman country, friends with the family of Eddie Jacobson, his old partner when Harry was a haberdasher. We like scrappy underdogs. Say what you will about the man, he hated Republicans.
Polls? I question just 'how' these polls are taken. I, for one, have never been 'polled'. My cell filters unknown callers. I have no land-line. Emails I receive, (I donate to Democratic candidates/causes), all seem to be fundraising tools even though they start with a burning question, "Will you be voting for Joe Biden?". What's your info on these polls?
“ there is no excuse to recycle highly suspect information from sources known to be flawed”
Take this quote by Jen Rubin to the bank.
After the Great Polling Debacle of 2016 that might well have cost Clinton the Presidency, or at least contributed to her loss, I ignore polls. Garbage in garbage out.
There are lies, damn lies, statistics, and then there are polls.
Also, the brain is made to respond to NEGATIVE news, so MSM is geared to exploit that. Not too many people want to hear about me helping a child cross the street. RW is a master of lies and negative comments.
I stopped giving polls any gravitas whatsoever as far back as 2008. They’re a cheap alternative to actual due diligence by the news media. Remember, fake polls to increase revenue happens a lot faster than an actual investigation by journalists that could take years.
Plus the results are always manipulated by the questions and who’s being polled. I laughed and laughed at the 2022 “red wave”.
1. The candidates tell us what they support, where they stand on issues, what they would prioritize in office, why they are just the person to do the job. This can be published online, and even on tv. There are no campaigns, no donations.
2. We very soon after, like a week after, go to vote.
3. Count the votes.
4. THEN we find out who won.
WHY are we so obsessed with figuring out ahead of time who's gonna win? And don't get me started on campaign finance reform--which we desperately need!!
Makes sense to me, but I would add at least one debate of some length in a neutral forum. Like the upcoming Georgia J6 related trial(s), I like to evaluate a person with the audio and video nice and clear. I find that gives me a better reading on my good/awful meter.
Sure, a debate would be useful. I don't like that the candidates are judged on whether they can attend a state fair and seem relaxed and natural. Much as I loathe Desantis, it doesn't seem fair to me that he's judged on his inability to chat about butter sculptures.
take all the money out of politics and you will be left with your sensible 4 steps. the parties, well the dems still do, used to have ""platforms"" which fulfilled item 1. above. trump who knew nothing and was proud of it did away with the platform and substituted it with his self-aggrandizement and hate speech. the republicans who constantly fail at 'accepting responsibility 101', bought the snake oil and just keep chugging it. take the money out of the process and skip the year and a half of phony campaigning and go directly to steps 2 and 3 which result in 4.
During the 2016 race, I used to read Fivethirtyeight compulsively. I will never ever ever forget Nick Silver saying, just before the elections, something like "there are 17 ways the vote could go, and Hillary wins in 16 of them." Granted, he did allow for for that 1/17 or whatever, but I did NOT feel adequately prepared. I am so bitter about that! lol But seriously, I have not looked at Fivethirtyeight, or any other polling source, since then.
I’m reading the Andy Borowitz book, Profiles In Ignorance and boy, does he skewer Reagan. Iincurious and ignorant, intellectually challenged, didn’t want to read PDB (or anything else.) Alan King, a liberal Democrat, said he blamed Samuel Goldwyn for Reagan’s presidency - “He should have given Ronnie better parts.”
Thank you as always Jeff for saying the quiet part out loud.
And yes, the only thing worse than polling "with their finger on the pulse of the 'Murican' voter, reported every five minutes from now until November, 2024, is the steady stream of "polls are close, send money now" or "Trump said WHAT?" send money now emails.
While it is still important to provide campaign resources (to Democratic candidates, not those paying off their criminal defense lawyers), wouldn't it be amazing if we could get out of short-term thinking mode and begin to understand why any of these races are even close?
If GOP "trickle down" fraudnomics only benefits about 5-10% of the voting population, aside from voter suppression and heavily gerrymandered districts, why is any election closer than 90% - 10%.
While we are stuck going election cycle to election cycle squeaking out a victory (thankfully -the Senate races in Georgia) -why is democratic messaging so bad that McCarthy is temporarily House Speaker, and Marjorie Taylor Greene, Lauren Boebert, and Loudmouth "I see nothing" Jordan are in the House (not to mention corrupt incompetent Governors like Noem).
Polls are a stupid distraction. I might as well report my pulse and systolic blood pressure (all noticeably are up when following current events) every five minutes and call it news.
Let’s work for a SLAM DUNK!!
yes, and that's the key word, "work." because a slam dunk isn't going to just happen by itself
I think the country should go on a polls diet and not have any for at least another what, nine months just as a suggestion? Polls create anxiety. Polls are a national health issue. The last two sets of polls in major elections were so far off, it's kind of interesting they're still at it exactly the same way. The questions suck. And Trump was one of the financial contributors to one of the last polls, that one that said he was ahead of Biden. Poll diet for me.
A polls diet, I like it.
I was thinking more of a mass intervention.
You know, the interventions staged to help a love one get help to kick a drug/alcohol /gambling addiction, an abusive partner, Fox-not-the-News and its ilk, doomscrolling, etc.
I'm afraid we waited too long. You need to catch people closer to the beginning. They're so locked in about now, one thinks of how to cut the island so that it floats away from the mainland.
Love that image. Maybe ice flows?
As long as the polar bears have the most room and the best ones.
Oh I see it as a win win. Polar bears get snacks and……..well you get the rest.
Oh, I do like that!
Going on the polls wagon is never a bad idea. Between the tangerine turd and the bogus media, you know most of it is sensationalized bullshit.
Thank you! I’m taking the pill diet pill as well. Screw them!
Good luck with that - from a MSM POV, there ain't no way they'll go for that. It's all 🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑
I am on a polls diet. Except that all of the Substack writers that I love are discussing them, otherwise I am ignoring them. I don't need some numbskull lazy ass journalist to tell me how I am thinking about the election, nor lying to me about how everyone else is thinking. I am not a Democrat who is down on Biden. I think he is the best president in my increasingly long (hopeful too) lifetime.
I just either skip the section a columnist is discussing a poll this far out, or skip the entire column that day. Tomorrow, he/she should have gotten it out of their system, and I can read their opinion piece again.
thanks, the only poll that counts is the election. almost 250 years of them with every one being accepted as legitimate until the orange monkey man threw his hissy fits of questioning the veracity of our system before the vote was even begun in 2016. we owe that schmuck for all of our election anxiety. lock him up in solitary with no outside communication. take away his toys and let the world see him for the jibbering idiot he is.
Neal, This, but yesterday.
This app apparently doesn't take images, but google the famous picture of Truman holding up the Chicago Tribune headline, "Dewey Defeats Truman."
true fact: I came *this close* to using the 'dewey defeats truman' photo. instead I went with the rune sticks.
I grew up around Truman country, friends with the family of Eddie Jacobson, his old partner when Harry was a haberdasher. We like scrappy underdogs. Say what you will about the man, he hated Republicans.
The ancient Israelites used the urim and thummim to determine their next moves.
https://www.gotquestions.org/urim-thummim.html
Pollsters and Republicans could do worse. Runes might be just as good as early polls.
Thank you for your response.
Glad you did , found it quite funny (and the perfect example of 'random' outcomes).
I like the rune sticks.
Polls? I question just 'how' these polls are taken. I, for one, have never been 'polled'. My cell filters unknown callers. I have no land-line. Emails I receive, (I donate to Democratic candidates/causes), all seem to be fundraising tools even though they start with a burning question, "Will you be voting for Joe Biden?". What's your info on these polls?
if you respond to that question either way, yes for Joe or no, not for joe. that is a poll.
Panic no.
Work hard yes.
“ there is no excuse to recycle highly suspect information from sources known to be flawed”
Take this quote by Jen Rubin to the bank.
After the Great Polling Debacle of 2016 that might well have cost Clinton the Presidency, or at least contributed to her loss, I ignore polls. Garbage in garbage out.
There are lies, damn lies, statistics, and then there are polls.
With apologies to Samuel Clemens
My runes say otherwise, Biden landslide!
Also, the brain is made to respond to NEGATIVE news, so MSM is geared to exploit that. Not too many people want to hear about me helping a child cross the street. RW is a master of lies and negative comments.
I take exception to describing a bunch of PAB worshippers as 'masters' of anything!
I hear ya, but the propagandists know their audience like a puppeteer knows his puppet's strings
Add social media algorithms to that and POOF! A bunch of Dumbshits running around waiting for somebody to do some revolutioning for them.
Who actually answers polls any longer? My 30-something son doesn't answer his phone, even for his parents. No one clicks on links, fearing malware.
I stopped giving polls any gravitas whatsoever as far back as 2008. They’re a cheap alternative to actual due diligence by the news media. Remember, fake polls to increase revenue happens a lot faster than an actual investigation by journalists that could take years.
Plus the results are always manipulated by the questions and who’s being polled. I laughed and laughed at the 2022 “red wave”.
Truth. I tune 'em out. It's basically like that Baby Ruth floating in the pool in Caddyshack.
That’s funny.
LOL
Why can't we do it like this:
1. The candidates tell us what they support, where they stand on issues, what they would prioritize in office, why they are just the person to do the job. This can be published online, and even on tv. There are no campaigns, no donations.
2. We very soon after, like a week after, go to vote.
3. Count the votes.
4. THEN we find out who won.
WHY are we so obsessed with figuring out ahead of time who's gonna win? And don't get me started on campaign finance reform--which we desperately need!!
Makes sense to me, but I would add at least one debate of some length in a neutral forum. Like the upcoming Georgia J6 related trial(s), I like to evaluate a person with the audio and video nice and clear. I find that gives me a better reading on my good/awful meter.
Sure, a debate would be useful. I don't like that the candidates are judged on whether they can attend a state fair and seem relaxed and natural. Much as I loathe Desantis, it doesn't seem fair to me that he's judged on his inability to chat about butter sculptures.
it's actually unfair to judge desantis on anything but ability to coherently deliver hate speech, and he fails even at that.
take all the money out of politics and you will be left with your sensible 4 steps. the parties, well the dems still do, used to have ""platforms"" which fulfilled item 1. above. trump who knew nothing and was proud of it did away with the platform and substituted it with his self-aggrandizement and hate speech. the republicans who constantly fail at 'accepting responsibility 101', bought the snake oil and just keep chugging it. take the money out of the process and skip the year and a half of phony campaigning and go directly to steps 2 and 3 which result in 4.
During the 2016 race, I used to read Fivethirtyeight compulsively. I will never ever ever forget Nick Silver saying, just before the elections, something like "there are 17 ways the vote could go, and Hillary wins in 16 of them." Granted, he did allow for for that 1/17 or whatever, but I did NOT feel adequately prepared. I am so bitter about that! lol But seriously, I have not looked at Fivethirtyeight, or any other polling source, since then.
let me just add, fuck Reagan.
I’m reading the Andy Borowitz book, Profiles In Ignorance and boy, does he skewer Reagan. Iincurious and ignorant, intellectually challenged, didn’t want to read PDB (or anything else.) Alan King, a liberal Democrat, said he blamed Samuel Goldwyn for Reagan’s presidency - “He should have given Ronnie better parts.”
THE ONLY POLL THAT COUNTS IS THE ONE IN ***NOVEMBER 2024*** AT THE BALLOT BOX!!!!!
AND WE BETTER 👏FUCKING 👏SHOW👏UP👏!!!
Thank you as always Jeff for saying the quiet part out loud.
And yes, the only thing worse than polling "with their finger on the pulse of the 'Murican' voter, reported every five minutes from now until November, 2024, is the steady stream of "polls are close, send money now" or "Trump said WHAT?" send money now emails.
While it is still important to provide campaign resources (to Democratic candidates, not those paying off their criminal defense lawyers), wouldn't it be amazing if we could get out of short-term thinking mode and begin to understand why any of these races are even close?
If GOP "trickle down" fraudnomics only benefits about 5-10% of the voting population, aside from voter suppression and heavily gerrymandered districts, why is any election closer than 90% - 10%.
While we are stuck going election cycle to election cycle squeaking out a victory (thankfully -the Senate races in Georgia) -why is democratic messaging so bad that McCarthy is temporarily House Speaker, and Marjorie Taylor Greene, Lauren Boebert, and Loudmouth "I see nothing" Jordan are in the House (not to mention corrupt incompetent Governors like Noem).
Polls are a stupid distraction. I might as well report my pulse and systolic blood pressure (all noticeably are up when following current events) every five minutes and call it news.
Social media algorithms screen out 'democratic messaging'.
VERY POSSIBLE I LIKE THIS ANSWER.
the answer is very simple- THE DNC SUCKS BIG TIME- THEY ARE PART OF THE PROBLEM AND HAVE NO CLUE ABOUT FINDING A SOLUTION.