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Donald Trump is running! pass the popcorn
in which I try to break down the scenarios
to the surprise of almost nobody with a pulse, the confessed classified document thief and launderer of Russian mob money has announced a run for the 2024 presidency. let’s consider how the likely scenarios might play out.
this is a fake-out. he’s not really running
I’ve heard people speculating about this, but I don’t see it as a possibility. what would be the point? he not selling a book and he no longer has a tv show to promote. so it’s not a vanity run.
he gets 14th Amendmented out of the race
a clause in the 14th Amendment disqualifies insurrectionists from holding office. two activist groups have started legal proceedings but let’s get real: Trump would appeal this all the way to the the stacked Supreme Court and the legal process would take years to play out.
he gets indicted
for sure the most satisfying scenario in the short term, but I don’t think it would change anything. there’s no law that prevents anyone under criminal indictment from running for president. it might even improve his standing among Republicans because if there’s one thing that Republicans like to do, it’s circle the wagons and play the victim. and again, criminal trials and appeals take years to play out. I don’t foresee Donald Trump behind bars before 2024, if ever.
he starts losing state primaries
now this would be interesting, because …
he fails at becoming the nominee and goes quietly into that good night
not a chance. the sore fucking loser who tried to overthrow his own government does not go quietly into that good night.
he fails at becoming the nominee and starts his own party
oh please please please please please please please let this happen. this is the scenario I have my fingers crossed for. Trump starting his own party would be utter fucking chaos.
he becomes the nominee and loses in the general election
prior to the midterms I used to worry about this a lot. the Republican Party tried to hard to put in place the sort of people who would succeed at election fuckery that they failed at in 2020. fortunately, most of the big lie proponents lost their races and therefore won’t be in any position to fuck with the 2024 election. plus there’s actual bipartisan support for the Electoral Count Reform Act, which would render most state-level fuckery moot.
he becomes the nominee and wins in the general election
oh shit, this could actually happen. it’s a long shot, but it was a long shot in 2016 and we all know how that went.
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did I forget anything? let me know in the comments
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