Donald Trump is running! pass the popcorn
in which I try to break down the scenarios
to the surprise of almost nobody with a pulse, the confessed classified document thief and launderer of Russian mob money has announced a run for the 2024 presidency. let’s consider how the likely scenarios might play out.
this is a fake-out. he’s not really running
I’ve heard people speculating about this, but I don’t see it as a possibility. what would be the point? he not selling a book and he no longer has a tv show to promote. so it’s not a vanity run.
he gets 14th Amendmented out of the race
a clause in the 14th Amendment disqualifies insurrectionists from holding office. two activist groups have started legal proceedings but let’s get real: Trump would appeal this all the way to the the stacked Supreme Court and the legal process would take years to play out.
he gets indicted
for sure the most satisfying scenario in the short term, but I don’t think it would change anything. there’s no law that prevents anyone under criminal indictment from running for president. it might even improve his standing among Republicans because if there’s one thing that Republicans like to do, it’s circle the wagons and play the victim. and again, criminal trials and appeals take years to play out. I don’t foresee Donald Trump behind bars before 2024, if ever.
he starts losing state primaries
now this would be interesting, because …
he fails at becoming the nominee and goes quietly into that good night
not a chance. the sore fucking loser who tried to overthrow his own government does not go quietly into that good night.
he fails at becoming the nominee and starts his own party
oh please please please please please please please let this happen. this is the scenario I have my fingers crossed for. Trump starting his own party would be utter fucking chaos.
he becomes the nominee and loses in the general election
prior to the midterms I used to worry about this a lot. the Republican Party tried to hard to put in place the sort of people who would succeed at election fuckery that they failed at in 2020. fortunately, most of the big lie proponents lost their races and therefore won’t be in any position to fuck with the 2024 election. plus there’s actual bipartisan support for the Electoral Count Reform Act, which would render most state-level fuckery moot.
he becomes the nominee and wins in the general election
oh shit, this could actually happen. it’s a long shot, but it was a long shot in 2016 and we all know how that went.
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did I forget anything? let me know in the comments
I think there are three points you ignored:
1) Trump can maximize his grift by "running" for POTUS and also stay "politically relevant" instead of just grieving about being politically persecuted from the sidelines. A corollary of this benefit is he will be better able to marshal his followers to threaten violence against all legal proceedings against him.
2) His move already caused AG Garland to appoint a special counsel which is probably for the best because it neutralizes Trump's victim claims. Ironically, his early run makes a conviction for his multiple felonies even more likely.
3) The Koch wing of the R Plutocracy already has four candidates led by the Governor DeSantis + Pompeo, Younkin, and Pence. Trump has demonstrated he's a threat to our Nation, our democracy, our economy, and our future. Robert Mercer's backed insurrectionists: Trump, Cruz, and Hawley are probably to hot and despicable to be appealing. Therefore, Koch has an opportunity to back a friendly autocratic candidate who has already served Koch and followed his researched game plan for 2024. DeSantis has successfully ruled his peninsula by breaking laws and banning books, without resorting to solar panels, while pretending to address climate change without any type of serious climate change mitigation. Assuming only minor sea level rise from melting Northern glaciers before 2024 and another Ian doesn't come ashore in the interim, DeSantis will be Koch's pick and Trump will likely be indicted, convicted, and legally detained for the rest of his life.
This will be a setback for the radical, reactionary Mercer Family sponsorships, not that anything will change with a Koch controlled Presidential nominee. Both of these Plutocrats pursue an escape from what use to be a progressive income tax system that the American Empire was built upon and which also supported a rising middle class. Now they only seek government welfare, miniscule corporate taxes, lax enforcement of regulations, and autocratic control of our diminished democracy.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/15/robert-mercer-family-gave-nearly-20-million-to-dark-money-gop-fund-during-2020-election.html
https://www.thedailybeast.com/gop-mega-donor-robert-mercer-part-of-massive-dollar7-billion-tax-settlement-with-irs
https://www.politico.com/interactives/2017/politico50/rebekah-mercer/
https://highline.huffingtonpost.com/articles/en/mercers/
https://theintercept.com/2021/01/27/rebekah-mercer-book-capitol-riot/
https://www.damemagazine.com/2017/09/26/rebekah-mercer-leading-army-alt-right-women/
https://www.politico.com/story/2017/08/09/trump-jeff-flake-robert-mercer-kelli-ward-241454
https://theintercept.com/2021/01/14/capitol-riot-mercers-election-unrest/
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/19/us/politics/robert-mercer-donald-trump-donor.html
https://www.salon.com/2021/02/04/how-one-billionaire-family-bankrolled-election-lies-white-nationalism--and-the-capitol-riot/
https://observer.com/2018/10/robert-mercer-bankrolled-pac-ali-alexander/
In the immortal words of Rick Wilson, Everything Tr*mp Touches Dies. I'm pulling for the formation of the MAGA party so we can add that to his unending list of failures. If he's running it's FROM the law, not because he gives a shit about the office or the responsibilities. And I do hope that when the wackos start sending out subpoenas, the recipients do the same as the R/Qs. Ignore them. They ran on lies (MikePillow hasn't got anything correct) turned blind eyes to all his faults while pointing fingers at everyone else & he got shit done, other than rising crime, prices, racism & the breakdown of friends & families over his endless barrage of bullshit. For the "Inflation! Crime!" platform, can anyone tell me how inspecting HB's laptop is going to lower gas prices or reduce crime?